Innovaro, Inc.

INNIdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Innovaro, Inc. earns about -60% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2010FY 2011FY 2012
Revenue$13.1M1$435,4252$530,8342
Net income−$19.1M3−$4.62M4−$9.99M4
Operating cash flow−$4.91M5−$2.83M6−$1.68M6
Capital expenditure$80,0637$39,2188$1,2798
Free cash flow (derived)−$4.99M5,7−$2.87M6,8−$1.68M6,8
Total debt$5.79M9,10$5.64M11$5.23M11
Cash & equivalents$262,61912$268,17012$75,91012
Diluted shares14.6M15.0M15.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$0.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.46
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.08
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.38

10 shares is a claim on $0.98 of net worth that earned you −$6.46 and generated −$1.08 of cash last year, against $3.38 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-60% avg · 3y
FY10 -77%FY11 -29%FY12 -74%

It earned an average -60% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 3y

Share count is up 6% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.6.0
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

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Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K filed 2012-04-11 · period ending 2010-12-31 · accession 0001193125-12-158864 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K filed 2013-04-15 · periods ending 2011-12-31, 2012-12-31 · accession 0001193125-13-155023 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K filed 2012-04-11 · period ending 2010-12-31 · accession 0001193125-12-158864 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K filed 2013-04-15 · periods ending 2011-12-31, 2012-12-31 · accession 0001193125-13-155023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K filed 2012-04-11 · period ending 2010-12-31 · accession 0001193125-12-158864 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K filed 2013-04-15 · periods ending 2011-12-31, 2012-12-31 · accession 0001193125-13-155023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K filed 2012-04-11 · period ending 2010-12-31 · accession 0001193125-12-158864 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  8. 10-K filed 2013-04-15 · periods ending 2011-12-31, 2012-12-31 · accession 0001193125-13-155023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K filed 2012-04-11 · period ending 2010-12-31 · accession 0001193125-12-158864 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  10. 10-K filed 2012-04-11 · period ending 2010-12-31 · accession 0001193125-12-158864 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  11. 10-K filed 2013-04-15 · periods ending 2011-12-31, 2012-12-31 · accession 0001193125-13-155023 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K filed 2013-04-15 · periods ending 2010-12-31, 2011-12-31, 2012-12-31 · accession 0001193125-13-155023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)