MeritValue

ICL Group Ltd.

ICLdata completeness 75%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

ICL Group Ltd. earns about 20% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $5.19 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.96B1$10B2$7.54B3$6.84B3$7.15B3
Net income$783M4$2.16B5$647M6$407M6$226M6
Operating cash flow$1.07B7$2.13B8$1.71B9$1.47B9$1.06B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$473M10$417M11$420M11$327M11$291M11
Diluted shares1.29B1.29B1.31B1.29B1.29B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$46.36
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.75
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $46.36 of net worth that earned you $1.75 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 23%FY22 46%FY23 15%FY24 11%FY25 7%

It earned an average 20% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$5.19
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$647M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$4.33
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000941 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000821 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000817 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000941 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000821 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000817 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000941 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000821 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000817 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000821 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000817 (CashAndCashEquivalents)