MeritValue

HELIX ENERGY SOLUTIONS GROUP INC

HLXdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HELIX ENERGY SOLUTIONS GROUP INC earns about 0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $27.08 and $48.95 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$674.7M1$873.1M2$1.29B3$1.36B3$1.29B3
Net income−$61.5M4−$87.8M5−$10.8M6$55.6M6$30.8M6
Operating cash flow$140.1M7$51.1M8$152.5M9$186M9$136.7M9
Capital expenditure$8.32M10$33.5M11$19.6M12$23.3M12$16.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$131.8M7$17.6M8$132.9M9$162.7M9$120.4M9
Total debt$610M13$528.2M14$723.4M15$630.3M16$616M16
Cash & equivalents$253.5M17$186.6M18$332.2M19$368M20$445.2M20
Diluted shares150.1M151.3M150.9M154.7M148.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$106.42
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.08
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.11
Debt you’d be carrying
$41.49

10 shares is a claim on $106.42 of net worth that earned you $2.08 and generated $8.11 of cash last year, against $41.49 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
0% avg · 5y
FY21 -2%FY22 -2%FY23 1%FY24 3%FY25 2%

It earned about 0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $27.08 and $48.95 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$48.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth19.1%
  • fcfBase$132.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$27.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth19.1%
  • fcfBase$132.9M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$7.09
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years19.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $27.08
The three cases
Bear0.0%$11.64
Base19.1%$27.08
Bull20.0%$28.03

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 19.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000866829-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001617 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000866829-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000866829-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001617 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000866829-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000866829-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001617 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000866829-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000866829-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001617 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000866829-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000866829-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000866829-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001617 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000866829-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000866829-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000866829-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001617 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000866829-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)