MeritValue

Cue Health Inc.

HLTHdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Cue Health Inc. earns about -63% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 870% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2019FY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023
Revenue$6.63M1$23M2$618.1M3$483.5M3$70.9M3
Net income−$20.6M4−$47.4M5$86.4M6−$194.1M6−$373.5M6
Operating cash flow−$13M7$92.7M8−$9.45M9−$111.9M9−$137.8M9
Capital expenditure$2.95M10$76M11$108.8M12$50.2M12$9.17M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$15.9M7$16.6M8−$118.3M9−$162.1M9−$147M9
Total debt—$5.43M13$013——
Cash & equivalents$14.3M14$121.6M15$409.9M16$241.5M16$80.9M16
Diluted shares15.8M16.3M59.6M148.0M152.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$16.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$24.43
Free cash flow it threw off
−$9.61
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $16.37 of net worth that earned you −$24.43 and generated −$9.61 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-63% avg · 5y
FY19 —FY20 —FY21 32%FY22 -48%FY23 -171%

It earned an average -63% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+870% shares · 5y

Share count is up 870% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth —

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001628945-22-000031 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628945-23-000063 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628945-24-000048 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001628945-22-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628945-23-000063 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628945-24-000048 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001628945-22-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628945-23-000063 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628945-24-000048 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001628945-22-000031 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628945-23-000063 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628945-24-000048 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628945-22-000031 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001628945-22-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628945-23-000063 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628945-24-000048 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)