MeritValue

ESS Tech, Inc.

GWHdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

ESS Tech, Inc. earns about -280% on equity, and has bought back 82% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$01$894,0002$7.54M3$6.3M4$1.58M4
Net income−$477.1M5−$78M6−$77.6M7−$86.2M8−$63.4M8
Operating cash flow−$51.8M9−$81.6M10−$54.9M11−$72.2M12−$50.3M12
Capital expenditure$2.77M13$14.2M14$5.79M15$7.29M16$3.39M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$54.6M9−$95.8M10−$60.7M11−$79.5M12−$53.7M12
Total debt$7.54M17$3.83M18$018——
Cash & equivalents$238.9M19$34.8M20$20.2M21$13.3M22$14.5M22
Diluted shares83.3M152.7M10.7M11.8M14.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$5.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$43.45
Free cash flow it threw off
−$36.76
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $5.9 of net worth that earned you −$43.45 and generated −$36.76 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-280% avg · 5y
FY21 -233%FY22 -57%FY23 -75%FY24 -299%FY25 -736%

It earned an average -280% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−82% shares · 5y

Share count is down 82% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005933 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015649 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001819438-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005933 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015649 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001819438-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005933 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015649 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001819438-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005933 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015649 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001819438-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005933 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005933 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015649 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001819438-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)