MeritValue

Grande Group Ltd/HK

GRANdata completeness 75%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Grande Group Ltd/HK earns about 1961% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 144% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.61 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$3.87M1$4.53M2$4.34M2$2.58M2
Net income$1.28M3$1.8M4$1.62M4−$3.47M4
Operating cash flow$228,9645$1.16M6$794,1476−$734,1526
Capital expenditure——$139,1537—
Free cash flow (derived)——$654,9946—
Total debt————
Cash & equivalents$1.94M8$2.77M9$2.07M10$1.45M10
Diluted shares10.0M10.0M14.7M24.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.43
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $2.98 of net worth that earned you −$1.43 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1961% avg · 4y
FY23 —FY24 —FY25 3972%FY26 -49%

It earned an average 1961% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+144% shares · 4y

Share count is up 144% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$0.61
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.45M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-069627 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001213900-26-084010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-069627 (ProfitLoss)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001213900-26-084010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-069627 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001213900-26-084010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001213900-26-084010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-26-084010 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-069627 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001213900-26-084010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)