MeritValue

Grande Group Ltd/HK

GRANdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Grande Group Ltd/HK earns about 110% on equity, but has diluted owners by 47% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.14 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.87M1$4.53M1$4.34M1
Net income$1.28M2$1.8M2$1.62M2
Operating cash flow$228,9643$1.16M3$794,1473
Capital expenditure——$139,1534
Free cash flow (derived)——$654,9943
Total debt———
Cash & equivalents$1.94M5$2.77M6$2.07M6
Diluted shares10.0M10.0M14.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1.44
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.1
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.45
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $1.44 of net worth that earned you $1.1 and generated $0.45 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
110% avg · 3y
FY23 —FY24 143%FY25 77%

It earned an average 110% on equity over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+47% shares · 3y

Share count is up 47% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$1.14
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.62M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$0.6
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-069627 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-069627 (ProfitLoss)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-069627 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-069627 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-069627 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001213900-25-069627 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)