MeritValue

Grab Holdings Ltd

GRABdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Grab Holdings Ltd earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 658% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.39 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$675M1$1.43B2$2.36B3$2.8B3$3.37B3
Net income−$3.45B4−$1.68B5−$434M6−$105M6$268M6
Operating cash flow−$954M7−$798M8$86M9$852M9$79M9
Capital expenditure—$58M10$71M11$77M11$97M11
Free cash flow (derived)—−$856M8$15M9$775M9−$18M9
Total debt$2.18B12$1.37B13$793M14$364M15$2.05B15
Cash & equivalents$4.99B16$1.95B17$3.14B17$2.96B17$3.43B17
Diluted shares539.9M3.81B3.89B4.00B4.09B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$16.44
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.65
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.04
Debt you’d be carrying
$5.02

10 shares is a claim on $16.44 of net worth that earned you $0.65 and generated −$0.04 of cash last year, against $5.02 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 72%FY22 -23%FY23 -9%FY24 -2%FY25 4%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+658% shares · 5y

Share count is up 658% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$15M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$15M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$1.49
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.39
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.39
Base0.0%$0.39
Bull5.0%$0.4

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-037611 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001855612-25-000013 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001855612-26-000020 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-037611 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001855612-25-000013 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001855612-26-000020 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-037611 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001855612-25-000013 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001855612-26-000020 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001855612-25-000013 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001855612-26-000020 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-014551 (Borrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-037611 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001855612-25-000013 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001855612-26-000020 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001855612-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001855612-26-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalents)