MeritValue

Golden Ocean Group Ltd

GOGLdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Golden Ocean Group Ltd earns about 7% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 40% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$346.2M1$406.3M2$484M3$450.9M3$326.1M3
Net income−$137.7M4$527.2M5$461.8M6$112.3M6$223.2M6
Operating cash flow$140.6M7$560.4M8$503.4M9$266.3M9$365.3M9
Capital expenditure$25.3M10$292.5M11$5M12$299.6M12$2.74M12
Free cash flow (derived)$115.4M7$267.9M8$498.4M9−$33.3M9$362.6M9
Total debt$2.09B13$2.52B14$2.24B15$2.74B16$2.61B16
Cash & equivalents$153.1M17$197M18$134.8M19$116.4M19$129.1M19
Diluted shares143.3M193.0M201.2M200.5M200.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$95
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$11.16
Free cash flow it threw off
$18.13
Debt you’d be carrying
$130.26

10 shares is a claim on $95 of net worth that earned you $11.16 and generated $18.13 of cash last year, against $130.26 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY20 -2%FY21 13%FY22 13%FY23 5%FY24 5%

It earned an average 7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+40% shares · 5y

Share count is up 40% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 25% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth —

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001029145-23-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001029145-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001029145-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001029145-23-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001029145-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001029145-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001029145-23-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001029145-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001029145-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001029145-23-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001029145-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001029145-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001029145-22-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001029145-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001029145-24-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001029145-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001029145-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001029145-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001029145-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)