GENMAB A/S

GMABdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GENMAB A/S earns about 22% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $154.19 and $271.9 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.39B1$3.12B1$3.72B1
Net income$631M2$1.13B2$963M2
Operating cash flow$1.07B3$1.13B3$1.19B3
Capital expenditure$53M4$27M4$37M4
Free cash flow (derived)$1.02B3$1.1B3$1.15B3
Total debt$05$5.27B5
Cash & equivalents$2.2B6$1.38B6$1.72B6
Diluted shares66.0M66.1M64.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$903.41
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$148.79
Free cash flow it threw off
$177.53
Debt you’d be carrying
$814.88

10 shares is a claim on $903.41 of net worth that earned you $148.79 and generated $177.53 of cash last year, against $814.88 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
22% avg · 3y
FY23 25%FY24 30%FY25 10%

It earned about 22% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 3y

Share count is roughly flat over 3 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $154.19 and $271.9 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$271.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.1B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$246.35
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.1B
Earnings Power Value
$154.19
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$963M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$176.75
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $246.35
The three cases
Bear0.0%$187.62
Base5.0%$246.35
Bull10.0%$316.62

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001434265-26-000014 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001434265-26-000014 (ProfitLoss)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001434265-26-000014 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001434265-26-000014 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001434265-26-000014 (Borrowings)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001434265-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalents)