MeritValue

Gambling.com Group Ltd

GAMBdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Gambling.com Group Ltd earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.68 and $11.73 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$42.3M1$76.5M2$108.7M3$127.2M3$165.4M3
Net income$12.5M4$2.39M5$18.3M6$30.7M6−$32.9M6
Operating cash flow$14M7$18.8M8$17.9M9$37.6M9$19.1M9
Capital expenditure$305,00010$330,00011$451,00012$1.33M12$863,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$13.7M7$18.4M8$17.5M9$36.3M9$18.2M9
Total debt$5.94M13$013$014$22.9M14$118.6M14
Cash & equivalents$51M15$29.7M16$25.4M16$13.7M16$15.8M16
Diluted shares33.8M36.5M37.1M34.8M35.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$30.76
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$9.38
Free cash flow it threw off
$5.2
Debt you’d be carrying
$33.8

10 shares is a claim on $30.76 of net worth that earned you −$9.38 and generated $5.2 of cash last year, against $33.8 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 36%FY22 5%FY23 20%FY24 24%FY25 -9%

It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 1896% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.68 and $11.73 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$11.73
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth10.0%
  • fcfBase$18.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$8.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth10.0%
  • fcfBase$18.2M
Earnings Power Value
$3.68
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$12.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years10.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $8.46
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.5
Base10.0%$8.46
Bull15.0%$11.02

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 10.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-004597 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001839799-25-000022 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001839799-26-000048 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001839799-23-000015 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001839799-25-000022 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001839799-26-000048 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001839799-23-000015 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001839799-25-000022 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001839799-26-000048 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001839799-23-000015 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001839799-25-000022 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001839799-26-000048 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001839799-23-000015 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001839799-26-000048 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001839799-25-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001839799-26-000048 (CashAndCashEquivalents)