MeritValue

Elastic N.V.

ESTCdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Elastic N.V. earns about -34% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 16% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $81.46 and $147.48 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$862.4M1$1.07B2$1.27B3$1.48B3$1.74B3
Net income−$203.8M4−$236.2M5$61.7M6−$108.1M6$367.8M6
Operating cash flow$5.67M7$35.7M8$148.8M9$266.2M9$326.9M9
Capital expenditure$2.49M10$2.68M11$3.45M12$4.35M12$5.09M12
Free cash flow (derived)$3.19M7$33M8$145.3M9$261.8M9$321.8M9
Total debt$566.5M13$567.5M14$568.6M15$569.7M16$570.9M16
Cash & equivalents$860.9M17$644.2M18$540.4M19$727.5M20$768.7M20
Diluted shares92.5M95.7M104.0M103.7M107.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$119.05
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$34.3
Free cash flow it threw off
$30.01
Debt you’d be carrying
$53.24

10 shares is a claim on $119.05 of net worth that earned you $34.3 and generated $30.01 of cash last year, against $53.24 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-34% avg · 5y
FY22 -116%FY23 -47%FY24 -10%FY25 -1%FY26 2%

It earned about -34% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+16% shares · 5y

Share count is up 16% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $81.46 and $147.48 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$147.48
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$261.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$81.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$261.8M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$30.31
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $81.46
The three cases
Bear0.0%$36.73
Base20.0%$81.46
Bull20.0%$81.46

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001707753-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001707753-25-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001707753-26-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001707753-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001707753-25-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001707753-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001707753-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001707753-25-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001707753-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001707753-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001707753-25-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001707753-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001707753-23-000021 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001707753-24-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001707753-25-000021 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-04-30 · accession 0001707753-26-000018 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001707753-23-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001707753-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001707753-25-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-04-30 · accession 0001707753-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)