MeritValue

DANAHER CORP /DE/

DHRdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DANAHER CORP /DE/ earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $52.72 and $68.94 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$24.8B1$26.6B2$23.9B3$23.9B3$24.6B3
Net income$6.43B4$7.21B5$4.76B6$3.9B6$3.61B6
Operating cash flow$8.36B7$8.52B8$7.16B9$6.69B9$6.42B9
Capital expenditure$1.24B10$1.12B11$1.38B12$1.39B12$1.16B12
Free cash flow (derived)$7.12B7$7.4B8$5.78B9$5.3B9$5.26B9
Total debt$44.4B13$39.4B14$36.8B15$32B16$36.8B16
Cash & equivalents$2.59B17$6B18$5.86B18$2.08B18$4.62B18
Diluted shares736.8M737.1M743.1M737.2M716.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$733.61
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$50.47
Free cash flow it threw off
$73.45
Debt you’d be carrying
$514.4

10 shares is a claim on $733.61 of net worth that earned you $50.47 and generated $73.45 of cash last year, against $514.4 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 8%FY23 5%FY24 5%FY25 4%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 17% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $52.72 and $68.94 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$52.72
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$5.3B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$60.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$5.3B
Earnings Power Value
$68.94
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.76B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$91.3
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $60.67
The three cases
Bear0.0%$60.67
Base0.0%$60.67
Bull5.0%$86.25

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000313616-24-000052 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000313616-25-000043 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000313616-26-000062 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000313616-24-000052 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000313616-25-000043 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000313616-26-000062 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000313616-24-000052 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000313616-25-000043 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000313616-26-000062 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000313616-24-000052 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000313616-25-000043 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000313616-26-000062 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000313616-23-000087 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000313616-24-000052 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000313616-25-000043 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000313616-26-000062 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000313616-25-000043 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000313616-26-000062 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)