MeritValue

DigitalBridge Group, Inc.

DBRGdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DigitalBridge Group, Inc. earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 43% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.16 and $19.47 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$180.8M1$172.7M2$264.1M3$329.7M3$374.4M3
Net income−$310.1M4−$321.8M5$185.3M6$70.5M6$141.9M6
Operating cash flow$248.2M7$262.6M8$233.6M9$60.1M9$259.3M9
Capital expenditure$010$011$012$3.59M12$1.35M12
Free cash flow (derived)$248.2M7$262.6M8$233.6M9$56.5M9$258M9
Total debt$4.86B13$569.4M14$371.8M15$296.4M16$298.8M16
Cash & equivalents$1.23B17$855.6M18$345.3M18$302.2M18$382.5M18
Diluted shares122.9M154.5M169.7M168.8M175.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$119.91
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.07
Free cash flow it threw off
$14.68
Debt you’d be carrying
$17

10 shares is a claim on $119.91 of net worth that earned you $8.07 and generated $14.68 of cash last year, against $17 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 -0%FY23 21%FY24 9%FY25 0%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+43% shares · 5y

Share count is up 43% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 94% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.16 and $19.47 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$18.04
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$233.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$19.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$233.6M
Earnings Power Value
$4.16
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$70.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$11.14
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $19.47
The three cases
Bear0.0%$19.47
Base0.0%$19.47
Bull5.0%$24.07

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001679688-24-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001679688-25-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001679688-26-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001679688-24-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001679688-25-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001679688-26-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001679688-24-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001679688-25-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001679688-26-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001679688-24-000021 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001679688-25-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001679688-26-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001679688-23-000017 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001679688-24-000021 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001679688-25-000017 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001679688-26-000021 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001679688-25-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001679688-26-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)