MeritValue

Dave Inc./DE

DAVEdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Dave Inc./DE earns about -4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 239% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $158.59 and $171.57 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$153M1$204.8M2$259.1M3$347.1M3$554.2M3
Net income−$20M4−$128.9M5−$48.5M6$57.9M6$195.9M6
Operating cash flow−$541,0007−$44.9M8$33.8M9$125.1M9$290M9
Capital expenditure$371,00010$728,00011$688,00012$262,00012$317,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$912,0007−$45.6M8$33.1M9$124.9M9$289.7M9
Total debt$35M13$75M14$75M15$75M16$016
Cash & equivalents$32M17$22.9M18$41.8M19$49.7M19$80.5M19
Diluted shares4.3M11.6M11.9M13.8M14.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$243.58
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$135.26
Free cash flow it threw off
$200.06
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $243.58 of net worth that earned you $135.26 and generated $200.06 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-4% avg · 5y
FY21 -33%FY22 -60%FY23 -24%FY24 31%FY25 64%

It earned about -4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+239% shares · 5y

Share count is up 239% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $158.59 and $171.57 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$171.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$124.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$158.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$124.9M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$86.11
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $158.59
The three cases
Bear0.0%$128.77
Base5.0%$158.59
Bull10.0%$194.28

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007591 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026024 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085370 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007591 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085370 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007591 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085370 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007591 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085370 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007591 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026024 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-032164 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085370 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007591 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085370 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)