MeritValue

CareTrust REIT, Inc.

CTREdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CareTrust REIT, Inc. earns about 6% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 112% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $3.65 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$01$01$02$02$1.23M2
Net income$72M3−$7.51M4$53.7M5$125.1M5$320.5M5
Operating cash flow$156.9M6$144.4M7$154.8M8$244.3M8$394M8
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$673.4M9$719.5M10$595.6M11$396.9M12$894.2M12
Cash & equivalents$19.9M13$13.2M14$294.4M15$213.8M16$198M16
Diluted shares96.1M96.7M106.2M155.2M204.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$197.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.71
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$43.81

10 shares is a claim on $197.72 of net worth that earned you $15.71 last year, against $43.81 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 6%FY24 5%FY25 8%

It earned an average 6% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+112% shares · 5y

Share count is up 112% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 33% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$3.65
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$72M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$26.43
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-002955 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007664 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003863 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005118 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007664 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003863 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005118 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007664 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-002955 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003863 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005118 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007664 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-002955 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003863 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005118 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007664 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)