MeritValue

COMMUNITY TRUST BANCORP INC /KY/

CTBIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

COMMUNITY TRUST BANCORP INC /KY/ earns about 23% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $47.56 and $81.11 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$178.2M1$197.7M2$268.7M3$313.4M3$345.7M3
Net income$87.9M4$81.8M5$78M6$82.8M6$98.1M6
Operating cash flow$115.7M7$99.7M8$85.9M9$105.3M9$105M9
Capital expenditure$2.37M10$6.22M11$6.32M12$8.08M12$7.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$113.3M7$93.5M8$79.5M9$97.2M9$97.4M9
Total debt$271.6M13$273.8M14$290M15$304.7M16$373.1M16
Cash & equivalents$311.8M17$128.7M18$271.4M19$369.5M20$363.7M20
Diluted shares17.8M17.9M17.9M18.0M18.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$474.44
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$54.34
Free cash flow it threw off
$53.97
Debt you’d be carrying
$206.76

10 shares is a claim on $474.44 of net worth that earned you $54.34 and generated $53.97 of cash last year, against $206.76 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
23% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 14%FY23 21%FY24 33%FY25 31%

It earned about 23% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 37% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $47.56 and $81.11 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$78.15
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.3%
  • fcfBase$97.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$81.11
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.3%
  • fcfBase$97.2M
Earnings Power Value
$47.56
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$82.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$76.13
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years1.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $81.11
The three cases
Bear0.0%$76.48
Base1.3%$81.11
Bull6.3%$100.68

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 1.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-009933 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006428 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-007058 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-009933 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006428 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-007058 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-009933 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006428 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-007058 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-009933 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006428 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-007058 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-009057 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-009933 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006428 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-007058 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-009057 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-009933 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006428 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-007058 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)