MeritValue

Caesarstone Ltd.

CSTEdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Caesarstone Ltd. earns about -36% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.7 and $13.64 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$643.9M1$690.8M2$565.2M3$443.2M3$397.2M3
Net income$19M4−$57.1M5−$107.7M6−$42.8M6−$137.5M6
Operating cash flow$20.7M7−$23.3M8$66.5M9$31.9M9−$38M9
Capital expenditure$31.5M10$17.8M11$11.2M12$10.4M12$9.04M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$10.8M7−$41.1M8$55.4M9$21.5M9−$47.1M9
Total debt$12.5M13$47.3M14$014——
Cash & equivalents$74.3M15$52.1M16$54.6M17$57.3M18$58.4M18
Diluted shares34.6M34.5M34.5M34.5M34.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$40.27
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$39.77
Free cash flow it threw off
−$13.61
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $40.27 of net worth that earned you −$39.77 and generated −$13.61 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-36% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 -10%FY23 -26%FY24 -15%FY25 -130%

It earned about -36% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.7 and $13.64 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$13.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$21.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$21.5M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.7
The three cases
Bear0.0%$10.56
Base5.0%$12.7
Bull10.0%$15.27

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000849 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000706 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000732 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000849 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000706 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000732 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000849 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000706 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000732 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000849 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000706 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000732 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-23-001005 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000849 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-23-001005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000849 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000706 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000732 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)