MeritValue

Canadian Solar Inc.

CSIQdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Canadian Solar Inc. earns about 3% on invested capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $16.9 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.28B1$7.47B2$7.61B3$5.99B3$5.6B3
Net income$109.9M4$298.6M5$274.2M6$36.1M6−$104.1M6
Operating cash flow−$408.3M7$916.6M8$684.6M9−$885.3M9−$252.7M9
Capital expenditure$428.7M10$627.1M10$1.12B10$1.11B11$962.3M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$837M7$289.5M8−$431.8M9−$2B9−$1.21B9
Total debt$4.39B12$5.14B13$6.68B14$8.35B15$8.4B16
Cash & equivalents$869.8M17$981.4M18$1.94B19$1.7B20$1.37B20
Diluted shares68.9M71.2M72.2M66.9M67.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$416.81
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$15.46
Free cash flow it threw off
−$180.35
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,246.77

10 shares is a claim on $416.81 of net worth that earned you −$15.46 and generated −$180.35 of cash last year, against $1,246.77 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 6%FY23 6%FY24 -1%FY25 -1%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 91% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$16.9
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$109.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-052464 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-001046 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-041976 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-052464 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-001046 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-041976 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-052464 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-001046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-041976 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-052464 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-041976 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-109460 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-046692 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-052464 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-001046 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-041976 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-046692 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-052464 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-001046 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-041976 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)