CERAGON NETWORKS LTD
CRNTdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on fileCERAGON NETWORKS LTD earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 8% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.76 and $4.06 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $290.8M1 | $295.2M2 | $347.2M3 | $394.2M3 | $338.7M3 |
| Net income | −$14.8M4 | −$19.7M5 | $6.22M6 | $24.1M6 | −$2.09M6 |
| Operating cash flow | −$15M7 | −$4.9M8 | $30.9M9 | $26.2M9 | $31.6M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $9.38M10 | $10.5M11 | $9.96M12 | $14.6M12 | $13.6M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$24.4M7 | −$15.4M8 | $20.9M9 | $11.6M9 | $17.9M9 |
| Total debt | $14.8M13 | $37.5M14 | $32.6M15 | $25.2M16 | $19M16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $17.1M17 | $22.9M18 | $28.2M19 | $35.3M20 | $38.4M20 |
| Diluted shares | 83.4M | 84.1M | 85.5M | 88.5M | 89.8M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $19.24 of net worth that earned you −$0.23 and generated $2 of cash last year, against $2.12 of debt.
It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 8% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 28% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.76 and $4.06 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$17.9M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$17.9M
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $3.07 |
| Base | 5.0% | $3.76 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $4.59 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001034 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000997 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-002118 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001034 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000997 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-002118 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000997 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-002118 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001034 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000997 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-002118 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-23-001573 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001034 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000997 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-002118 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-23-001573 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000997 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-002118 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)