MeritValue

Cardiff Oncology, Inc.

CRDFdata completeness 88%26 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Cardiff Oncology, Inc. earns about -54% on equity, but has diluted owners by 71% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$359,0001$386,0002$488,0003$683,0004$593,0004
Net income−$28.3M5−$38.7M6−$41.4M7−$45.4M8−$45.9M8
Operating cash flow−$23M9−$33.8M10−$30.9M11−$37.7M12−$37.9M12
Capital expenditure$205,00013$1.01M14$582,00015$80,00016$44,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$23.2M9−$34.8M10−$31.5M11−$37.8M12−$38M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$11.9M17$16.3M18$21.7M19$51.5M20$17.5M20
Diluted shares39.0M43.6M44.7M47.6M66.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$6.79
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.86
Free cash flow it threw off
−$5.68
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $6.79 of net worth that earned you −$6.86 and generated −$5.68 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-54% avg · 5y
FY21 -20%FY22 -36%FY23 -59%FY24 -55%FY25 -101%

It earned an average -54% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+71% shares · 5y

Share count is up 71% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-006037 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007948 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028992 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067464 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-006037 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007948 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028992 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067464 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-006037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007948 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028992 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067464 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-006037 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007948 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028992 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067464 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-006037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007948 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028992 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067464 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)