MeritValue

Cricut, Inc.

CRCTdata completeness 75%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Cricut, Inc. earns about 35% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.31B1$886.3M2$765.1M3$712.5M3$708.8M3
Net income$140.5M4$60.7M5$53.6M6$62.8M6$76.7M6
Operating cash flow−$104.9M7$117.7M8$288.1M9$265M9$200.2M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$241.6M10$224.9M11$142.2M12$232.1M13$256.2M13
Diluted shares219.8M220.6M219.7M215.6M217.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$15.81
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.53
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $15.81 of net worth that earned you $3.53 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
35% avg · 5y
FY21 33%FY22 14%FY23 14%FY24 27%FY25 88%

It earned an average 35% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$62.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$3.53
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001828962-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001828962-25-000039 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001828962-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001828962-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001828962-25-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001828962-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001828962-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001828962-25-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001828962-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001828962-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001828962-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001828962-25-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001828962-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)