MeritValue

CUMBERLAND PHARMACEUTICALS INC

CPIXdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CUMBERLAND PHARMACEUTICALS INC earns about -30% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.07 and $5.42 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$35M1$42M2$39.6M3$37.9M4$44.5M4
Net income−$3.51M5−$5.57M6−$6.28M7−$6.48M8−$2.84M8
Operating cash flow$6.34M9$8.45M10$6.09M11−$612,18612$4.93M12
Capital expenditure$103,53213$102,14814$281,26815$66,46116$97,90316
Free cash flow (derived)$6.24M9$8.35M10$5.81M11−$678,64712$4.83M12
Total debt——$017$5.1M18$018
Cash & equivalents$27M19$19.8M20$18.3M21$18M22$11.4M22
Diluted shares14.9M14.6M14.3M14.1M14.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$16.75
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.91
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.25
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $16.75 of net worth that earned you −$1.91 and generated $3.25 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-30% avg · 5y
FY21 -27%FY22 -24%FY23 -39%FY24 -46%FY25 -14%

It earned about -30% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.07 and $5.42 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$5.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$4.83M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$5.42
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$4.83M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $5.42
The three cases
Bear0.0%$5.42
Base0.0%$5.42
Bull5.0%$6.55

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007727 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010725 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011366 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001087294-26-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007727 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010725 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011366 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001087294-26-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007727 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010725 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011366 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001087294-26-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007727 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010725 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011366 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001087294-26-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011366 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001087294-26-000020 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007727 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010725 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011366 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001087294-26-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)