MeritValue

Canterbury Park Holding Corp

CPHCdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Canterbury Park Holding Corp earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.83 and $15.35 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$60.4M1$66.8M2$61.4M3$61.6M4$59.6M4
Net income$11.8M5$7.51M6$10.6M7$2.11M8−$529,4318
Operating cash flow$13.5M9$11.2M10$11.5M11$6.49M12$8.9M12
Capital expenditure$3.78M13$5M14$7.91M15$12M16$4.18M16
Free cash flow (derived)$9.72M9$6.22M10$3.63M11−$5.5M12$4.72M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$11.9M17$13M18$21.9M19$10.1M20$12.1M20
Diluted shares4.8M4.9M4.9M5.0M5.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$165.39
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.04
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.3
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $165.39 of net worth that earned you −$1.04 and generated $9.3 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 22%FY22 13%FY23 18%FY24 3%FY25 -1%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.83 and $15.35 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$11.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$3.63M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.6
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$3.63M
Earnings Power Value
$15.35
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$7.51M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.6
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.6
Base0.0%$12.6
Bull5.0%$15.08

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007356 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007400 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006992 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007464 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007356 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007400 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006992 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007464 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007356 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007400 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006992 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007464 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007356 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007400 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006992 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007464 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007356 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007400 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006992 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007464 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)