MeritValue

Traeger, Inc.

COOKdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Traeger, Inc. earns about -9% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 18% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$785.5M1$655.9M2$605.9M3$604.1M3$559.5M3
Net income−$91.8M4−$382.1M5−$84.4M6−$34M6−$115.2M6
Operating cash flow−$28.4M7$5.09M8$64M9$23.9M9$20.5M9
Capital expenditure$22.5M10$18.4M11$19.9M12$12M12$6.93M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$50.9M7−$13.3M8$44.1M9$11.9M9$13.6M9
Total debt$767.6M13$944.4M14$801.4M15$802.3M16$803.2M16
Cash & equivalents$16.7M17$39.1M18$29.9M19$15M20$19.6M20
Diluted shares112.4M119.7M123.7M127.4M133.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$12.84
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$8.65
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.02
Debt you’d be carrying
$60.34

10 shares is a claim on $12.84 of net worth that earned you −$8.65 and generated $1.02 of cash last year, against $60.34 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-9% avg · 5y
FY21 -4%FY22 -22%FY23 -4%FY24 -3%FY25 -10%

It earned an average -9% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+18% shares · 5y

Share count is up 18% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$13.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$13.6M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001857853-24-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001857853-25-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015450 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001857853-24-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001857853-25-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015450 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001857853-24-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001857853-25-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015450 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001857853-24-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001857853-25-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015450 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001857853-23-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001857853-24-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001857853-25-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015450 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001857853-23-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001857853-24-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001857853-25-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015450 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)