MeritValue

COHERENT CORP.

COHRdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

COHERENT CORP. earns about 3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 35% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $3.31 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.11B1$3.32B2$5.16B3$4.71B3$5.81B3
Net income$297.6M4$234.8M5−$259.5M6−$156.2M6$49.4M6
Operating cash flow$574.4M7$413.3M8$634M9$545.7M9$633.6M9
Capital expenditure$146.3M10$314.3M11$436.1M12$346.8M12$440.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$428M7$99M8$198M9$198.9M9$192.8M9
Total debt$2.75B13$4.6B14$8.62B15$8.2B16$7.37B16
Cash & equivalents$1.59B17$2.58B18$821.3M19$926M19$909.2M19
Diluted shares115.0M116.5M137.6M151.6M154.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$364.74
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.19
Free cash flow it threw off
$12.46
Debt you’d be carrying
$476.48

10 shares is a claim on $364.74 of net worth that earned you $3.19 and generated $12.46 of cash last year, against $476.48 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 6%FY23 -0%FY24 -1%FY25 0%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+35% shares · 5y

Share count is up 35% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 168% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth7.3%
  • fcfBase$198M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth7.3%
  • fcfBase$198M
Earnings Power Value
$3.31
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$49.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000820318-23-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000820318-24-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000820318-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000820318-23-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000820318-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000820318-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000820318-23-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000820318-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000820318-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000820318-23-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000820318-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000820318-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000820318-22-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000820318-23-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000820318-24-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000820318-25-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000820318-21-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000820318-24-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000820318-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)