MeritValue

Context Therapeutics Inc.

CNTXdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Context Therapeutics Inc. earns about -71% on equity, but has diluted owners by 3259% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$10.5M1−$14.8M2−$24M3−$26.7M4−$36.1M4
Operating cash flow−$8.8M5−$13.5M6−$21M7−$14.6M8−$26.4M8
Capital expenditure$09$36,83610$011$7,31612$33,94812
Free cash flow (derived)−$8.8M5−$13.6M6−$21M7−$14.6M8−$26.4M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$49.6M13$35.5M14$14.4M15$94.4M16$66M16
Diluted shares2.8M16.0M16.0M58.4M95.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$6.35
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.8
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.78
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $6.35 of net worth that earned you −$3.8 and generated −$2.78 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-71% avg · 5y
FY21 -22%FY22 -43%FY23 -202%FY24 -28%FY25 -60%

It earned an average -71% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3259% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3259% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001842952-23-000041 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001842952-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001842952-25-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-020498 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001842952-23-000041 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001842952-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001842952-25-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-020498 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001842952-23-000041 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001842952-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001842952-25-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-020498 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001842952-23-000041 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001842952-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001842952-25-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-020498 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)