MeritValue

Commerce.com, Inc.

CMRCdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Commerce.com, Inc. earns about -15% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 13% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.33 and $2.65 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$219.9M1$279.1M2$309.4M3$332.9M3$342.3M3
Net income−$76.7M4−$139.9M5−$64.7M6−$27M6−$19.3M6
Operating cash flow−$40.3M7−$89.4M8−$24.2M9$26.3M9$25.5M9
Capital expenditure—$5.2M10$4.18M11$3.72M11$8.6M11
Free cash flow (derived)—−$94.6M8−$28.4M9$22.5M9$16.9M9
Total debt$335.5M12$675M13$679.6M13$216.5M14$157M14
Cash & equivalents$297.6M15$91.6M15$71.7M16$88.9M17$44.3M17
Diluted shares70.9M73.2M75.1M77.6M80.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$4.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.41
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.1
Debt you’d be carrying
$19.56

10 shares is a claim on $4.9 of net worth that earned you −$2.41 and generated $2.1 of cash last year, against $19.56 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-15% avg · 5y
FY21 -34%FY22 -17%FY23 -8%FY24 -10%FY25 -4%

It earned about -15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+13% shares · 5y

Share count is up 13% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 53% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.33 and $2.65 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$16.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.33
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$16.9M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.33
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.6
Base5.0%$2.33
Bull10.0%$3.2

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022864 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029211 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085687 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022864 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029211 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085687 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022864 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029211 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085687 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029211 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085687 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005598 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022864 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085687 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022864 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029211 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085687 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)