MeritValue

CME GROUP INC.

CMEdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

CME GROUP INC. earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $92.78 and $354.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.69B1$5.02B2$5.58B3$6.13B3$6.52B3
Net income$2.64B4$2.69B4$3.23B4$3.53B4$4.07B4
Operating cash flow$2.4B5$3.06B6$3.45B7$3.69B7$4.28B7
Capital expenditure$127.2M8$89.7M9$76.4M10$94M10$83.5M10
Free cash flow (derived)$2.28B5$2.97B6$3.38B7$3.6B7$4.19B7
Total debt$749.4M11$16M12$013$749.8M14$014
Cash & equivalents$2.83B15$2.72B16$2.91B17$2.89B17$4.42B17
Diluted shares358.9M359.2M359.5M359.9M360.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$797.32
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$113.02
Free cash flow it threw off
$116.39
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $797.32 of net worth that earned you $113.02 and generated $116.39 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 11%FY23 14%FY24 14%FY25 17%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $92.78 and $354.55 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$354.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth12.6%
  • fcfBase$3.6B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$255.35
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth12.6%
  • fcfBase$3.6B
Earnings Power Value
$92.78
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.23B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$141.49
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years12.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $255.35
The three cases
Bear0.0%$154.87
Base12.6%$255.35
Bull17.6%$308.91

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 12.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001156375-24-000010 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001156375-25-000021 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001156375-26-000009 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001156375-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001156375-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001156375-25-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001156375-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001156375-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001156375-25-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001156375-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001156375-23-000020 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001156375-24-000010 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001156375-25-000021 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001156375-26-000009 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001156375-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001156375-25-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001156375-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)