MeritValue

CMB.TECH NV

CMBTdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

CMB.TECH NV earns about 13% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $22.29 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$1.21B1$419.8M2$854.7M3$1.24B3$940.2M3
Net income$473.2M4−$338.8M5$203.3M6$858M6$870.8M6
Operating cash flow$969.8M7−$25.3M8$255.6M9$837.4M9$459.1M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$1.27B10$1.71B11$1.7B12$930.7M12$2.62B12
Cash & equivalents$161.5M13$152.5M14$179.9M14$429.4M14$38.9M14
Diluted shares220.0M220.0M220.0M220.0M220.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$54.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$39.58
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$119.18

10 shares is a claim on $54.19 of net worth that earned you $39.58 last year, against $119.18 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY20 14%FY21 -8%FY22 6%FY23 30%FY24 23%

It earned an average 13% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 106% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$22.29
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$473.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$23.27
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001604481-23-000004 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001604481-24-000008 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001604481-25-000004 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001604481-23-000004 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001604481-24-000008 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001604481-25-000004 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001604481-23-000004 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001604481-24-000008 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001604481-25-000004 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001604481-23-000004 (Borrowings)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001604481-24-000008 (Borrowings)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001604481-25-000004 (Borrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001604481-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001604481-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalents)