Opthea Ltd

CKDXFdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

The thesis, from the filings

Opthea Ltd earns about -113% on equity, but has diluted owners by 282% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	$68,613¹	$90,683²	$108,000³	$125,000³	$25,000³
Net income	−$45.3M⁴	−$92.8M⁵	−$142.5M⁶	−$220.2M⁶	−$162.8M⁶
Operating cash flow	−$45.5M⁷	−$71.3M⁸	−$120.6M⁹	−$161M⁹	−$158.6M⁹
Capital expenditure	$12,702¹⁰	$16,910¹¹	$22,000¹²	$33,000¹²	$13,000¹²
Free cash flow (derived)	−$45.6M⁷	−$71.4M⁸	−$120.6M⁹	−$161M⁹	−$158.7M⁹
Total debt	$0¹³	$0¹⁴	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$118.2M¹⁵	$44.6M¹⁶	$89.2M¹⁶	$172.5M¹⁶	$48.4M¹⁶
Diluted shares	320.4M	351.6M	442.6M	638.2M	1.22B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

−$1.64

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$1.33

Free cash flow it threw off

−$1.3

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on −$1.64 of net worth that earned you −$1.33 and generated −$1.3 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

-113% avg · 5y

FY21 -34%FY22 -193%FY23 —FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average -113% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+282% shares · 5y

Share count is up 282% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-050230 (Revenue)
20-F/A · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-108246 (Revenue)
20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001193125-25-202743 (Revenue)
20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-050230 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
20-F/A · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-108246 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001193125-25-202743 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-050230 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
20-F/A · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-108246 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001193125-25-202743 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-050230 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
20-F/A · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-108246 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001193125-25-202743 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001564590-21-052421 (Borrowings)
20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-050230 (Borrowings)
20-F/A · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-108246 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001193125-25-202743 (CashAndCashEquivalents)