MeritValue

Cipher Digital Inc.

CIFRdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Cipher Digital Inc. earns about -14% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 75% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$3.04M1$126.8M2$151.3M2$223.9M2
Net income−$72.2M3−$39.1M4−$25.8M5−$44.6M5−$822.2M5
Operating cash flow−$31.7M6−$20.9M7−$94.2M8−$87.5M8−$207.9M8
Capital expenditure$5.11M9$39.2M10$20.5M11$139.5M11$487.9M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$36.8M6−$60.1M7−$114.7M8−$227M8−$695.9M8
Total debt——$012$32.3M13$5.5B13
Cash & equivalents$209.8M14$11.9M15$74.2M16$5.59M16$628.3M16
Diluted shares218.0M248.2M252.4M323.1M381.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$21.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$21.55
Free cash flow it threw off
−$18.24
Debt you’d be carrying
$144.1

10 shares is a claim on $21.11 of net worth that earned you −$21.55 and generated −$18.24 of cash last year, against $144.1 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-14% avg · 5y
FY21 -40%FY22 -9%FY23 -4%FY24 -5%FY25 -11%

It earned an average -14% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+75% shares · 5y

Share count is up 75% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025442 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819989-26-000009 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007793 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025442 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819989-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007793 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025442 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819989-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007793 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025442 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819989-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819989-25-000005 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001819989-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007793 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025442 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819989-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)