MeritValue

Cigna Group

CIdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Cigna Group earns about 17% on invested capital, and has bought back 21% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $209.13 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$174.1B1$180.5B2$195.3B3$247.1B3$274.9B3
Net income$5.42B4$6.78B5$5.16B6$3.43B6$5.96B6
Operating cash flow$7.19B7$8.66B8$11.8B9$10.4B9$9.6B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$4.57B10$2.99B11$4.01B12$3.92B13$592M13
Cash & equivalents$5.08B14$5.92B15$7.82B16$7.55B17$7.68B17
Diluted shares341.0M313.1M296.9M283.2M268.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,553.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$221.81
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$22.04

10 shares is a claim on $1,553.19 of net worth that earned you $221.81 last year, against $22.04 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
17% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 19%FY23 16%FY24 13%FY25 21%

It earned an average 17% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−21% shares · 5y

Share count is down 21% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 87% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$209.13
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$5.42B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$278.41
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001739940-24-000005 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001739940-25-000009 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001739940-26-000006 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001739940-24-000005 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001739940-25-000009 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001739940-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001739940-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001739940-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001739940-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001739940-23-000008 (CommercialPaper)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001739940-24-000005 (CommercialPaper)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001739940-25-000009 (CommercialPaper)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001739940-26-000006 (CommercialPaper)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001739940-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001739940-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001739940-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001739940-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)