MeritValue

Carlyle Group Inc.

CGdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Carlyle Group Inc. earns about 31% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $28.51 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$8.78B1$4.44B2$2.96B3$5.43B3$4.78B3
Net income$2.97B4$1.23B5−$608.4M6$1.02B6$808.7M6
Operating cash flow$1.79B7−$379.3M8$204.9M9−$759.5M9−$3.28B9
Capital expenditure$41.4M10$40.6M11$66.6M12$77.7M12$99.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.75B7−$419.9M8$138.3M9−$837.2M9−$3.37B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$2.47B13$1.36B14$1.44B15$1.27B15$1.97B15
Diluted shares362.6M365.7M361.4M368.0M370.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$190.26
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$21.8
Free cash flow it threw off
−$90.99
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $190.26 of net worth that earned you $21.8 and generated −$90.99 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
31% avg · 5y
FY21 97%FY22 25%FY23 -9%FY24 23%FY25 21%

It earned an average 31% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$28.51
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.02B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$30.55
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001527166-24-000019 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001527166-25-000006 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001527166-26-000009 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001527166-24-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001527166-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001527166-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001527166-24-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001527166-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001527166-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001527166-24-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001527166-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001527166-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001527166-24-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001527166-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001527166-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)