MeritValue

CALIFORNIA FIRST LEASING CORP

CFNBdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

CALIFORNIA FIRST LEASING CORP earns about 19% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $8.72 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2013FY 2014FY 2015FY 2016FY 2017
Revenue$21.4M1$19.7M2$23M3$27.7M3$29.2M3
Net income$7.35M4$7.05M5$9.06M6$8.65M6$11.1M6
Operating cash flow−$2.7M7$6.47M8$5.17M9$9.69M9$44.3M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt——$010$011$011
Cash & equivalents$75.5M12$40.1M13$60.2M13$105.1M13$96.1M13
Diluted shares10.5M10.5M10.5M10.4M10.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$190.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.82
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $190.8 of net worth that earned you $10.82 last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
19% avg · 5y
FY13 18%FY14 12%FY15 16%FY16 25%FY17 24%

It earned an average 19% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$8.72
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$8.65M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$21.53
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2013-06-30 · accession 0001171843-15-005299 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2014-06-30 · accession 0001171843-16-012282 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2015-06-30 · accession 0001171843-17-005747 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2013-06-30 · accession 0001171843-15-005299 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2014-06-30 · accession 0001171843-16-012282 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2015-06-30 · accession 0001171843-17-005747 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2013-06-30 · accession 0001171843-15-005299 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2014-06-30 · accession 0001171843-16-012282 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2015-06-30 · accession 0001171843-17-005747 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2015-06-30 · accession 0001171843-16-012282 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2016-06-30 · accession 0001171843-17-005747 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2013-06-30 · accession 0001171843-16-012282 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2014-06-30 · accession 0001171843-17-005747 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)