MeritValue

CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc.

CCCdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc. earns about 0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 21% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.03 and $17.15 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$688.3M1$782.4M2$866.4M3$944.8M3$1.06B3
Net income−$248.9M4$38.4M5−$90.1M6$31.2M6$1.69M6
Operating cash flow$127.3M7$199.9M8$250M9$283.9M9$315.5M9
Capital expenditure$38.3M10$48M11$55M12$53M12$61M12
Free cash flow (derived)$89M7$152M8$195M9$230.9M9$254.5M9
Total debt$1.59B13$1.57B14$1.55B15$769.1M16$2.57B16
Cash & equivalents$182.5M17$323.8M18$195.6M19$399M20$111.2M20
Diluted shares543.6M642.8M617.9M641.9M659.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$27.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.03
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.86
Debt you’d be carrying
$38.95

10 shares is a claim on $27.09 of net worth that earned you $0.03 and generated $3.86 of cash last year, against $38.95 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
0% avg · 5y
FY21 -5%FY22 2%FY23 -1%FY24 3%FY25 1%

It earned about 0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+21% shares · 5y

Share count is up 21% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 62% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.03 and $17.15 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$17.15
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$230.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$7.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$230.9M
Earnings Power Value
$0.03
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.69M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $7.69
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.27
Base20.0%$7.69
Bull20.0%$7.69

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022253 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026848 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067448 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022253 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026848 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067448 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022253 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026848 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067448 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022253 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026848 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067448 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005611 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022253 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026848 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067448 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005611 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022253 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026848 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067448 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)