Ceribell, Inc.

CBLLdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Ceribell, Inc. earns about -28% on equity, but has diluted owners by 589% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	$45.2M¹	$65.4M²	$89.1M²
Net income	−$29.5M³	−$40.5M⁴	−$53.4M⁴
Operating cash flow	−$29.2M⁵	−$35M⁶	−$40.8M⁶
Capital expenditure	$983,000⁷	$1.34M⁸	$767,000⁸
Free cash flow (derived)	−$30.1M⁵	−$36.4M⁶	−$41.6M⁶
Total debt	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$34.5M⁹	$194.4M¹⁰	$40.5M¹⁰
Diluted shares	5.3M	11.9M	36.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$42.51

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$14.62

Free cash flow it threw off

−$11.38

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $42.51 of net worth that earned you −$14.62 and generated −$11.38 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

-28% avg · 3y

FY23 —FY24 -21%FY25 -34%

It earned an average -28% on equity over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+589% shares · 3y

Share count is up 589% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026773 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067238 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026773 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067238 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026773 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067238 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026773 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067238 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026773 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067238 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)