MeritValue

CRESCENT BIOPHARMA, INC.

CBIOdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

CRESCENT BIOPHARMA, INC. earns about -90% on equity, and has bought back 46% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.16M1$75,0001$10,0002—$10.8M3
Net income−$63.4M4−$46.7M4−$36.9M5−$37.9M5−$153.9M6
Operating cash flow−$57.5M7−$46.5M7−$34.9M8−$31.1M8−$71.5M9
Capital expenditure$14,94310$84,19110$21,39411$9,97211$919,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$57.5M7−$46.5M7−$34.9M8−$31.1M8−$72.5M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$90.3M13$47.9M14$41.8M15$34.8M16$213.2M16
Diluted shares51.5M52.5M63.3M64.5M27.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$73.67
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$55.86
Free cash flow it threw off
−$26.29
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $73.67 of net worth that earned you −$55.86 and generated −$26.29 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-90% avg · 5y
FY21 -78%FY22 -109%FY23 -96%FY24 —FY25 -76%

It earned an average -90% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−46% shares · 5y

Share count is down 46% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000948 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011983 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000948 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011983 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000948 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011983 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000948 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011983 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004864 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000948 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011983 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)