COLONY BANKCORP INC

CBANdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

COLONY BANKCORP INC earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 58% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.55 and $13.74 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$70.6M1$91.5M2$124.9M3$137.2M4$150M4
Net income$18.7M5$19.5M6$21.7M7$23.9M8$28.3M8
Operating cash flow$36.1M9$49.7M10$21M11$23.4M12−$5.55M12
Capital expenditure$5.84M13$2.9M14$3.62M15$1.08M16$1.35M16
Free cash flow (derived)$30.3M9$46.8M10$17.4M11$22.3M12−$6.9M12
Total debt$88.4M17$203.4M18$238.4M19$248M20$258.1M20
Cash & equivalents$197.2M21$80.7M22$83.3M23$231M23$257.6M23
Diluted shares11.3M17.2M17.6M17.6M17.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$211.31
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.88
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.88
Debt you’d be carrying
$145.09

10 shares is a claim on $211.31 of net worth that earned you $15.88 and generated −$3.88 of cash last year, against $145.09 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 20%FY22 8%FY23 14%FY24 29%FY25 27%

It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+58% shares · 5y

Share count is up 58% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 192% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.55 and $13.74 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$12.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$17.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$13.74
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$17.4M
Earnings Power Value
$12.55
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$21.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$25.16
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $13.74
The three cases
Bear0.0%$13.74
Base0.0%$13.74
Bull5.0%$17.06

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000711669-23-000041 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000711669-24-000046 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000711669-25-000046 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000711669-26-000007 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000711669-23-000041 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000711669-24-000046 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000711669-25-000046 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000711669-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000711669-23-000041 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000711669-24-000046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000711669-25-000046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000711669-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000711669-23-000041 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000711669-24-000046 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000711669-25-000046 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000711669-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000711669-23-000041 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000711669-24-000046 (LongTermDebt)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000711669-25-000046 (LongTermDebt)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000711669-26-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000711669-24-000046 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000711669-25-000046 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000711669-26-000007 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)