CAVA GROUP, INC.
CAVAdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'
CAVA GROUP, INC. earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 16058% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.16 and $6.65 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $500.1M1 | $564.1M2 | $728.7M3 | $963.7M3 | $1.18B3 |
| Net income | −$37.4M4 | −$59M5 | $13.3M6 | $130.3M6 | $63.7M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $3.39M7 | $6.04M8 | $97.1M9 | $161M9 | $184.8M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $56.3M10 | $104.2M11 | $138.8M12 | $108.1M12 | $158.7M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$52.9M7 | −$98.1M8 | −$41.7M9 | $52.9M9 | $26.1M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $140.3M13 | $39.1M14 | $332.4M15 | $366.1M16 | $282.9M16 |
| Diluted shares | 732,000 | 1.3M | 63.4M | 118.3M | 118.3M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $65.92 of net worth that earned you $5.39 and generated $2.21 of cash last year.
It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 16058% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.16 and $6.65 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$26.1M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$26.1M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$13.3M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $5.55 |
| Base | 5.0% | $6.31 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $7.23 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001628280-24-007277 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001628280-25-007882 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011296 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001628280-24-007277 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001628280-25-007882 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011296 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001628280-24-007277 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001628280-25-007882 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011296 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001628280-24-007277 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001628280-25-007882 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011296 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001628280-25-007882 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001628280-24-007277 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007882 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001628280-26-011296 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)