China Automotive Systems, Inc.
CAASdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'
China Automotive Systems, Inc. earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.29 and $12.88 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $576.4M1 | $650.9M1 | $765.7M1 |
| Net income | $37.7M2 | $30M2 | $42.8M2 |
| Operating cash flow | $19.9M3 | $9.78M3 | $111.6M3 |
| Capital expenditure | $18.2M4 | $43.7M4 | $37.2M4 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $1.67M3 | −$33.9M3 | $74.4M3 |
| Total debt | — | $145.1M5 | $162.7M6 |
| Cash & equivalents | $155.2M7 | $57M8 | $142M8 |
| Diluted shares | 30.2M | 30.2M | 30.2M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $133.02 of net worth that earned you $14.2 and generated $24.67 of cash last year, against $53.92 of debt.
It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 3 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 12% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.29 and $12.88 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$1.67M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$1.67M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$37.7M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $0.1 |
| Base | 5.0% | $0.29 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $0.52 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-046434 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-046434 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-046434 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-046434 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-046434 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-046434 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-046434 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-046434 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)