Bowman Consulting Group Ltd.

BWMNdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. earns about -0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 119% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.88 and $81.53 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$150M1$261.7M2$346.3M3$426.6M4$490M4
Net income$299,0005$5.01M6−$6.62M7$3.03M8$12.8M8
Operating cash flow$4.72M9$9.17M10$11.7M11$24.3M12$35.8M12
Capital expenditure$905,00013$902,00014$2.09M15$626,00016$2.39M16
Free cash flow (derived)$3.81M9$8.27M10$9.63M11$23.7M12$33.4M12
Total debt$12.9M17$27.2M18$28.8M19$38.1M20$57.6M21
Cash & equivalents$20.6M22$13.3M23$20.7M24$6.7M25$11.1M25
Diluted shares7.6M11.7M12.5M16.1M16.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$155.91
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7.67
Free cash flow it threw off
$19.96
Debt you’d be carrying
$34.39

10 shares is a claim on $155.91 of net worth that earned you $7.67 and generated $19.96 of cash last year, against $34.39 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-0% avg · 5y
FY21 -1%FY22 1%FY23 -3%FY24 -3%FY25 4%

It earned about -0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+119% shares · 5y

Share count is up 119% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 348% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.88 and $81.53 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$81.53
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$23.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$43.31
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$23.7M
Earnings Power Value
$1.88
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.03M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$15.79
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $43.31
The three cases
Bear0.0%$17.42
Base20.0%$43.31
Bull20.0%$43.31

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-008120 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010652 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012365 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015252 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-008120 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010652 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012365 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015252 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-008120 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010652 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012365 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015252 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-008120 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010652 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012365 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015252 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-22-011536 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-008120 (LongTermDebt)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010652 (LongTermDebt)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012365 (LongTermDebt)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015252 (LongTermDebt)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-008120 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010652 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012365 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  25. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015252 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)