MeritValue

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV

BUDdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'depreciationAmortization'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $33.45 and $154.88 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$54.3B1$57.8B2$59.4B3$59.8B3$59.3B3
Net income$4.67B4$5.97B5$5.34B6$5.86B6$6.84B6
Operating cash flow$14.8B7$13.3B8$13.3B9$15.1B9$14.9B9
Capital expenditure$5.64B10$5.16B11$4.64B12$3.86B12$3.66B12
Free cash flow (derived)$9.16B7$8.14B8$8.63B9$11.2B9$11.2B9
Total debt———$72.2B13$73B13
Cash & equivalents$12.1B14$9.97B15$10.3B16$11.2B17$11.6B17
Diluted shares1.74B1.74B1.74B1.80B1.80B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$485.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$38.04
Free cash flow it threw off
$62.47
Debt you’d be carrying
$406.26

10 shares is a claim on $485.68 of net worth that earned you $38.04 and generated $62.47 of cash last year, against $406.26 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 12%FY23 10%FY24 5%FY25 6%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $33.45 and $154.88 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$154.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth11.2%
  • fcfBase$11.2B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$107.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth11.2%
  • fcfBase$11.2B
Earnings Power Value
$33.45
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$5.86B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$60.87
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years11.2%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $107.07
The three cases
Bear0.0%$53.65
Base11.2%$107.07
Bull16.2%$138.47

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 11.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-064823 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-052976 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-088105 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-064823 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-052976 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-088105 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-064823 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-052976 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-088105 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-064823 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-052976 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-088105 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-088105 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-073993 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-064823 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-052976 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-088105 (CashAndCashEquivalents)