MeritValue

BrightSpring Health Services, Inc.

BTSGdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. earns about 6% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 87% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.72B1$7.69B2$10.1B2$12.9B2
Net income−$53.9M3−$154.6M4−$18.1M4$190.7M4
Operating cash flow−$4.65M5$210.8M6$23.8M6$490.2M6
Capital expenditure$70.1M7$73.5M8$80.9M8$95.5M8
Free cash flow (derived)−$74.8M5$137.3M6−$57.1M6$394.7M6
Total debt—$6.73B9$5.22B10$5.02B10
Cash & equivalents—$13.1M11$61M12$88.4M12
Diluted shares117.8M117.9M193.0M219.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$85.32
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.68
Free cash flow it threw off
$17.96
Debt you’d be carrying
$228.19

10 shares is a claim on $85.32 of net worth that earned you $8.68 and generated $17.96 of cash last year, against $228.19 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 4y
FY22 20%FY23 1%FY24 1%FY25 3%

It earned an average 6% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+87% shares · 4y

Share count is up 87% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 25% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$137.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$137.3M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$13.82
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034196 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-079454 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034196 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-079454 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034196 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-079454 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034196 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-079454 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034196 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-079454 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034196 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-079454 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)