MeritValue

BIT ORIGIN Ltd

BTOGdata completeness 75%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

BIT ORIGIN Ltd earns about -1221% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 1988% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$80.5M1$6.26M2$6.26M3$2.89M2$39,4952
Net income−$45.6M4$3.24M5−$28.2M5−$17.5M5−$4.37M6
Operating cash flow−$10.4M7−$14.2M8−$6.76M9−$7.93M9−$2.29M9
Capital expenditure—$8.3M10$115,03311——
Free cash flow (derived)—−$22.5M8−$6.88M9——
Total debt$9.89M12————
Cash & equivalents$1,94313$17,80514$16,27415$1.41M16$55,63916
Diluted shares1.1M3.3M3.3M5.2M23.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.89
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $1.69 of net worth that earned you −$1.89 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1221% avg · 5y
FY21 -41%FY22 -64%FY23 -216%FY24 -5694%FY25 -90%

It earned an average -1221% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1988% shares · 5y

Share count is up 1988% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001410578-21-000293 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001104659-25-105009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001410578-24-002113 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001410578-23-002160 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001410578-24-002113 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001104659-25-105009 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001410578-23-002160 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001410578-24-002113 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001104659-25-105009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001410578-24-002113 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001104659-25-105009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001410578-21-000293 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001410578-22-002742 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001410578-23-002160 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001410578-24-002113 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001104659-25-105009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)