MeritValue

Bitcoin Depot Inc.

BTMCQdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

Bitcoin Depot Inc. earns about -195% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 57% of its shares over 4 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $52.71 and $56.92 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$646.8M1$689M2$573.7M3$614.9M3
Net income$04−$26.1M5−$11.7M6−$6.18M6
Operating cash flow$31.3M7$41.1M8$22.5M9$34M9
Capital expenditure$1.11M10$22,00011$10.8M12$5.49M12
Free cash flow (derived)$30.1M7$41.1M8$11.8M9$28.5M9
Total debt—$22.5M13$56.2M14$60.5M14
Cash & equivalents$37.5M15$29.8M16$29.5M17$65.6M17
Diluted shares—16.7M2.8M7.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$15.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$8.65
Free cash flow it threw off
$39.86
Debt you’d be carrying
$84.63

10 shares is a claim on $15.97 of net worth that earned you −$8.65 and generated $39.86 of cash last year, against $84.63 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-195% avg · 4y
FY22 —FY23 -473%FY24 -32%FY25 -80%

It earned about -195% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−57% shares · 4y

Share count is down 57% over 4 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 169% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $52.71 and $56.92 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$52.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$28.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$56.92
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$28.5M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $56.92
The three cases
Bear0.0%$56.92
Base0.0%$56.92
Bull5.0%$70.5

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-044405 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043923 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-113938 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-044405 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043923 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-113938 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-044405 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043923 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-113938 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-044405 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043923 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-113938 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043923 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-113938 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-044405 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043923 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-113938 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)