MeritValue

BTC Digital Ltd.

BTCTdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

BTC Digital Ltd. earns about -8% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 1949% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$114.4M1$11.8M2$9.07M2$11.7M3$14M3
Net income−$60.6M4$7.69M5−$2.82M6−$1.99M6−$9.06M6
Operating cash flow−$72.1M7−$31M8$3.81M9$1.56M9−$5.26M9
Capital expenditure$11.5M10$8.88M11$2.5M12$2.74M12$8.52M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$83.5M7−$39.9M8$1.31M9−$1.19M9−$13.8M9
Total debt—$870,00013$125,00014$484,00015$2.17M15
Cash & equivalents$26.4M16$48,00017$43,00018$14.9M19$350,00019
Diluted shares401,335682,7791.5M3.0M8.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$45.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$11.02
Free cash flow it threw off
−$16.75
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.63

10 shares is a claim on $45.19 of net worth that earned you −$11.02 and generated −$16.75 of cash last year, against $2.63 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-8% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 4%FY23 -11%FY24 -6%FY25 -18%

It earned an average -8% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1949% shares · 5y

Share count is up 1949% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 149% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-027106 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-032825 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-054456 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-027106 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037719 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-054456 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-027106 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037719 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-054456 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-027106 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037719 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-054456 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-032825 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037719 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-054456 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-027106 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-032825 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037719 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-054456 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)