MeritValue

BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.

BTAIdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -132% on equity, and has bought back 54% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$375,0001$1.38M2$2.27M3$642,0003
Net income−$106.9M4−$165.8M5−$179.1M6−$59.6M7−$69.9M7
Operating cash flow−$82.2M8−$135.3M9−$155M10−$72M11−$57.6M11
Capital expenditure$445,00012$139,00013$20,00014$015$015
Free cash flow (derived)−$82.6M8−$135.5M9−$155M10−$72M11−$57.6M11
Total debt—$93.1M16$100.6M17$205M18$219.2M18
Cash & equivalents$233M19$193.7M20$65.2M21$29.9M22$28.4M22
Diluted shares26.4M28.0M1.8M2.5M12.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$78.2
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$57.26
Free cash flow it threw off
−$47.19
Debt you’d be carrying
$179.54

10 shares is a claim on −$78.2 of net worth that earned you −$57.26 and generated −$47.19 of cash last year, against $179.54 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-132% avg · 5y
FY21 -48%FY22 -216%FY23 —FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average -132% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−54% shares · 5y

Share count is down 54% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 136% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003784 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003985 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-036214 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003940 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003784 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003985 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-036214 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003940 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003784 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003985 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-036214 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003940 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003784 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003985 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-036214 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003784 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003985 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-036214 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003940 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003784 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003985 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-036214 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)