Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.
BOWdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'
Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. earns about 21% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 41% over 4 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.63 and $507.71 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $187.6M1 | $283.4M2 | $425.7M2 | $551.6M2 |
| Net income | $11.3M3 | $25M4 | $38.2M4 | $53.8M4 |
| Operating cash flow | $181.6M5 | $236.2M6 | $294.3M6 | $331.6M6 |
| Capital expenditure | $3.97M7 | $3.82M8 | $3.11M8 | $5.57M8 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $177.7M5 | $232.4M6 | $291.2M6 | $326M6 |
| Total debt | — | — | $09 | $146.4M9 |
| Cash & equivalents | $64.7M10 | $118.1M11 | $97.5M11 | $193.5M11 |
| Diluted shares | 24.0M | 24.0M | 29.7M | 33.7M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $132.87 of net worth that earned you $15.94 and generated $96.64 of cash last year, against $43.41 of debt.
It earned about 21% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 41% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.63 and $507.71 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$291.2M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$291.2M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$31.6M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $123.09 |
| Base | 20.0% | $278.79 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $278.79 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002002473-25-000008 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011089 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002002473-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011089 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002002473-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011089 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002002473-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011089 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011089 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002002473-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011089 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)