MeritValue

BOK FINANCIAL CORP

BOKFdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

BOK FINANCIAL CORP earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $87.02 and $126.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.18B1$1.39B2$2.34B3$2.64B3$2.53B3
Net income$618.1M4$520.3M5$530.7M6$523.6M6$578M6
Operating cash flow−$3.69B7$5.12B8$66.2M9$1.43B9$739.6M9
Capital expenditure$204.3M10$215M11$165.9M12$171.6M12$164.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$3.9B7$4.91B8−$99.7M9$1.26B9$575.2M9
Total debt$2.49B13$7.14B14$8.96B15$4.45B15$4.63B15
Cash & equivalents$2.84B16$1.4B17$1.35B17$1.43B17$1.66B17
Diluted shares68.6M67.2M65.7M63.7M62.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$945.13
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$92.3
Free cash flow it threw off
$91.86
Debt you’d be carrying
$740.03

10 shares is a claim on $945.13 of net worth that earned you $92.3 and generated $91.86 of cash last year, against $740.03 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 6%FY23 11%FY24 17%FY25 18%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 86% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $87.02 and $126.84 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$126.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$575.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$113.28
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$575.2M
Earnings Power Value
$87.02
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$530.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$141.93
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $113.28
The three cases
Bear0.0%$81.98
Base5.0%$113.28
Bull10.0%$150.72

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000875357-24-000008 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000875357-25-000013 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000875357-26-000013 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000875357-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000875357-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000875357-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000875357-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000875357-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000875357-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000875357-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000875357-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000875357-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000875357-24-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000875357-25-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000875357-26-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000875357-22-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000875357-26-000013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)