MeritValue

BlackRock, Inc.

BLKdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

BlackRock, Inc. earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 4 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $301.74 and $352.78 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$17.9B1$17.9B2$20.4B2$24.2B2
Net income$5.18B3$5.5B4$6.37B4$5.55B4
Operating cash flow$4.96B5$4.17B6$4.96B6$3.93B6
Capital expenditure$533M7$344M8$255M8$375M8
Free cash flow (derived)$4.42B5$3.82B6$4.7B6$3.55B6
Total debt—$7.92B9$12.3B10$12.8B10
Cash & equivalents$7.43B11$8.74B12$12.8B13$11.5B13
Diluted shares152.4M150.7M151.6M160.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$3,474.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$345.19
Free cash flow it threw off
$220.8
Debt you’d be carrying
$793.7

10 shares is a claim on $3,474.18 of net worth that earned you $345.19 and generated $220.8 of cash last year, against $793.7 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 4y
FY22 16%FY23 15%FY24 14%FY25 10%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 4y

Share count is up 6% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 61% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $301.74 and $352.78 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$301.74
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$3.82B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$326.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$3.82B
Earnings Power Value
$352.78
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$5.53B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$535.1
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $326.81
The three cases
Bear0.0%$326.81
Base0.0%$326.81
Bull5.0%$407.73

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026584 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071966 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026584 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071966 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026584 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071966 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026584 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071966 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026584 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071966 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071966 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026584 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071966 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)